The Russian president Vladimir Putin declared a military operation in Ukraine at 4am local time. He claimed the action was necessary to “defend” the Russian-speaking people living in the country. This effectively tore down Bitcoin.
Here’s what 3 notable crypto personalities had to say.
Buterin: Ethereum is neutral, but I’m not
Vitalik Buterin (Ethernet cofounder) condemned the decision in Twitter in his native Russian
Putin’s decision that there was no peaceful way out of the Ukraine dispute and instead went to war is deeply disappointing. Russia’s invasion in Ukraine is a crime against the Ukrainian and Russian peoples.
SBF: Do something kind for someone
Sam Bankman-Fried is the CEO of cryptocurrency exchange FTX. He also took to Twitter. Buterin was more succinct, and he offered a Bitcoin price prediction in the context of war.
The S&P500 has dropped about 4% and the BTC by about 8% in the last 24 hours. There are two types of people around the world: algorithm followers and fundamental investors. Fundamental investors are able to see the whole picture and make decisions about where BTC/USD should go.
Followers of algorithmic analysis consult the data. What is the historical trend? There has been a strong correlation between crypto and equities over the past year. This is due to monetary policies: changes in inflation expectations and interest rates, both in USD and in other fiat currencies.
The algorithms analyze the data and make a decision based on it. BTC should be 80% related to the S&P500 with a beta value of 4. If the S&P500 moves 1% BTC moves 4%
Then war happens.
Fundamental investors are neutral, but algorithmic investors see the S&P500 go down 4%, and so expect BTC to go down 4*4%=16% based on historical studies.
Fundamental investors buy and algorithmic buyers sell; BTC finishes somewhere in-between, down 8% daily, half the 16% predicted by the algorithmic investor. At which point their model updates a bit–BTC went down less than the 4x they predicted–and a cycle begins.
He then changes gears.
Perhaps liquidity is the real impact. If you aren’t afraid of risk, you might be selling everything you have now because you never know what will happen. And markets are illiquid right now–who’s buying volatile assets?
He admitted that he doesn’t know what the future holds, concluding:
Do something nice to someone. The world could really use it.
Nick Schteringard – This man is insane
The impact has been felt by Russian crypto news outlets that have staff in Ukraine. Nick Schteringard (chief editor) of ForkLog, a Russian language crypto news outlet, stated that several members of the team were in serious danger. He was firm:
It’s absolutely clear that this man [Putin]is out of his mind and needs to be stopped.
Schteringard added, perplexed:
I don’t quite understand people who are now taking to Twitter to post about how the war brings an opportunity to buy the dip. You don’t need to worry about Bitcoin or stocks; the war is right at your door!